Hurricane Lorena intensifies to Category 1 along Baja California with heavy rainfall, threat of flash flooding and high-speed winds. The leftover can feed storms and floods in Texas, Arizona, and New Mexico over the weekend.
Present conditions and projections in Mexico.
- Category 1 hurricane: Lorena has intensified as a Category 1 storm with sustained winds of about 120 km/h (75 mph) and gusts of 150 km/h (93 mph).
- Location: As of early Wednesday, the position was approximately 165 km (105 miles) southwest of the port of Cabo San Lucas and was heading north-west toward the Baja California Peninsula.
- Prognosis: It is likely to gain strength at a rapid pace up to Wednesday night before weakening on Thursday, and landfall is predicted on Friday, either as a weakening Category 1 or as a tropical storm.
These are the expected effects in Mexico.
- Heavy rainfall: Amounts may exceed 15 inches (≈38 cm) in some areas of Baja California Sur, causing severe flash floods and mudslides, particularly in rugged terrain.
- Alarm raised: Tropical storm alerts and warnings have been put out in extensive regions of Baja California and northwestern Mexico.
- Safety measures: Government (Conagua, National Civil Protection) encourages residents to not cross rivers, to avoid landslide areas, to lock up things outside, to limit traveling, and to watch government announcements.
The possible impacts in the United States (Southwest and Texas)
US Southwest (Texas, Arizona, New Mexico)
The inflow of moisture: The leftovers of the storm will bring atmospheric moisture into the Southwest and South-Central U.S.–especially Texas, Arizona, and New Mexico.
- Rain threat in Texas:
o The National Weather Service has also placed a Level 1 (out of 4) excessive rainfall threat over the majority of Texas, especially West Texas and the Panhandle.
o Rain will be East-bound on the weekend, hitting urban areas in the I-35 region – between San Antonio and Dallas-Fort Worth – and southeast Texas through a frontal system encouraged by the tropical moisture.
o The combined tropical moisture and an independent slow moving front can cause Houston to have a 40 percent chance of rain on Saturday and 60 percent on Sunday.
- Forecast timing:
o The most intensive rainfall can occur on Sundays through Mondays as the high moisture levels (precipitable water up to 2.1 inches) combine with the local weather systems.
o Trend in drying will be expected to stay dry until Tuesday when drier continental air fills in.
Kids on the Kind (New Mexico, Arizona)
- Risk of floods increases: The Weather Channel points out that Lorena is not going to land in the U.S., but its moisture plume might fall to the Desert Southwest, and it would increase the risk of flash flooding, particularly south Arizona and New Mexico.
- Monsoon-drought scenario: Areas that are now struggling with drought might be relieved with rain, but the intensity and velocity of downpours might still be dangerous.
- Flood watches already in effect in some areas of southern Arizona, which can be expanded as the situation develops.
What You Can Do
- Mexico (Baja California area): heed official warnings, stay out of flood-prone and landslide-prone regions, prepare against heavy rain.
- In Texas (particularly West to Southeast): Be watchful of rainfall news, flash warnings, and hard weather warnings this weekend (particularly on Sunday and Monday).
- In Arizona / New Mexico: Be prepared of thunder-showers–even when rain is needed–keep watch of flood warnings, particularly in deserts and in highland.
Summary
The Category 1 Hurricane Lorena is nearing the peninsula of Baja California in Mexico, bringing heavy rainfall, flooding and powerful winds. Government has issued storm warnings due to the possibility of 15 inches of rain with flash flooding and landslides. The storm should have subsided by Friday but remnants of the storm will cause moisture to hit the U.S. Southwest and Texas, leading to more rain opportunities, thunderstorms, and localized flood threats this weekend, particularly in Houston, San Antonio, Phoenix and the vicinity.
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